Remember the 1970’s-era jingle, “Hamburger Helper…helped her hamburger…help her make a great meal”? While it may seem nostalgic, Hamburger Helper is making a strong comeback, with sales surging by 14.5 percent compared to last year.
Remarkably, this kind of surge in sales is reminiscent of previous periods marked by economic strain and uncertainty, such as the stagflation of the 1970s, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020. Now, we are witnessing a similar trend unfolding once again.
Supporting this shift, Yelp has reported a significant increase in searches for budget-friendly dining options: “meal deals” have seen a 117 percent jump, “value meal” searches are up by 22 percent, and “cheap eats” have risen by 21 percent. These numbers highlight a growing consumer focus on value and affordability.
Current Economic Conditions Remain Strong
Despite these changes in consumer behavior, the broader economy continues to show robust health. According to Torsten Slok from Apollo, several key indicators remain positive:
- Trade policy uncertainty is diminishing.
- Consumers are feeling less anxious about potential job losses.
- Daily TSA data indicates strong levels of travel.
- Same-store retail sales are maintaining strength on a weekly basis.
- Bank lending activity is increasing.
- Weekly bankruptcy filings are trending downward.
One notable development is that the top 10 percent of earners in the United States now account for approximately 50 percent of all consumer spending as of the second quarter of 2025—a significant increase from the historical average of about 35 percent. This phenomenon suggests that when asset values rise, such as through gains in financial assets and real estate, those holding these assets feel more confident and increase their spending. The wealthiest are driving much of the consumption, and leading companies—including American Express and major airlines—are tailoring their offerings to serve this segment.
Risks on the Horizon: Lessons from the Past
However, there are potential risks if economic conditions change. If asset values decline—if the “screen goes red”—the spending power of the top earners could shrink, impacting overall consumer spending. History provides a cautionary tale: in 1999, companies began accumulating significant debt to expand internet infrastructure and telecommunications in anticipation of future growth. With high-value companies taking on leverage, vendors offered generous financing, leading to mounting corporate debt. This culminated in major bankruptcies, such as WorldCom, which owed over $30 billion, and Global Crossing, which had $12.4 billion in debt.
Moreover, the era was marked by creative revenue recognition. For example, AOL engaged in barter transactions, trading advertising space and recording the value as revenue. In one instance, AOL converted a $23 million legal claim held by MoveFone over Wembley PLC into advertising revenue: instead of paying the claim directly, Wembley agreed to purchase an equivalent amount of advertising from AOL.
While history may not repeat itself exactly, it often exhibits similar patterns. Today, we observe emerging trends that echo some of the behaviors seen during past economic cycles. For example, NVIDIA, a key hardware provider for artificial intelligence applications such as ChatGPT, recently announced an investment of up to $100 billion in OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT. In turn, OpenAI is expected to use these funds to purchase $100 billion worth of chips from NVIDIA. This closed-loop arrangement raises questions about the nature of the revenue being generated—whether it could be considered creative or even circular in nature.
Another case in point is CoreWeave, a company that recently went public with an initial market capitalization of approximately $14 billion. In a short period, its market value has soared to nearly $60 billion. However, the company has also accumulated $8 billion in debt, much of which was raised in the private credit markets at interest rates ranging from 11% to 15%. This debt is primarily secured by the company’s holdings in NVIDIA chips as well as its customer contracts.
These examples suggest that much like in previous economic cycles, innovative financing and revenue strategies are becoming prominent features of today’s market landscape.
Equity Market Performance in Q3 2025
The third quarter of 2025 stood out due to the remarkable resilience of global equity markets. Contrary to historical trends and the skepticism of many observers following the tariff-related disruptions earlier in the year, equity benchmarks not only recovered but reached new milestones.
Typically known as the weakest month for stocks, September 2025 defied expectations and capped off a strong quarter. U.S. equity indices climbed to new levels: the S&P 500 surpassed 6,500 and closed above 6,600, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged beyond 46,000 for the first time ever. Over the quarter, the Nasdaq posted an impressive gain of 11.41%, the S&P 500 advanced by 8.12%, and the usually moderate Dow rose by 9.06%. Internationally, the MSCI World Index registered a solid 5.41% increase for the period.
Three key factors contributed to this strong market performance. First, corporate earnings demonstrated solid growth across most sectors, with revenues driving a year-over-year increase of approximately 5%. Second, the ongoing boom in artificial intelligence technologies continued without any signs of slowing, providing momentum for related sectors. Finally, after months of speculation, the Federal Reserve initiated a policy shift by implementing a rate cut in September, signaling what may be the beginning of a new easing cycle.
Bonds Market Performance in Q3 2025
The 10-year Treasury yield concluded September 2025 at around 4.16%, maintaining a relatively stable level throughout the quarter after a slight decline from earlier in the year. This ongoing stability in yields continued the pattern established in the second quarter, during which rates remained anchored near 4.2% despite ongoing policy uncertainty. The steadiness in Treasury yields reflected a market environment characterized by conflicting influences: on one hand, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts exerted downward pressure on yields, while on the other, persistent inflation concerns and the widening federal deficit kept yields from falling further.
As we stated earlier, a pivotal development during the quarter occurred on September 17, when the Federal Reserve executed its first interest rate cut of the year. This quarter-percentage point reduction officially marked the onset of a new easing cycle. Although market participants had largely anticipated this move, the rate cut confirmed prevailing investor strategies and provided support to bond prices across the yield curve.
Additionally, real yields—the inflation-adjusted cost of borrowing—remained at the higher end of their historical range. This indicated that, even with nominal yields in the low-4% range, bonds were delivering notably attractive real returns compared to most of the previous decade.
Gold’s Ascent: Understanding the 2025 Rally
Gold has emerged as one of the standout performers in 2025, staging a historic rally that has captured the attention of investors worldwide. The precious metal’s surge to these heights reflects a fundamental shift in global investment dynamics, driven by a potent combination of geopolitical uncertainty, monetary policy shifts, and structural changes in central bank behavior.
Gold’s performance in 2025 has been nothing short of spectacular. Gold climbed nearly 26% in the first half of the year alone, setting 26 new all-time highs during that period—following 40 record highs set in 2024. By April, gold briefly touched $3,500 per ounce for the first time in history, while the first quarter average price reached $2,860 per ounce, representing a 38% year-over-year increase.
As of late September 2025, gold had peaked at approximately $3,895 per ounce, cementing its position as one of the top-performing major asset classes of the year. This remarkable run has prompted major financial institutions to continuously revise their forecasts upward, with J.P. Morgan predicting gold will average $3,675 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2025 and climb toward $4,000 by mid-2026, while Goldman Sachs expects $3,700 by year-end.
TL;DR
On September 30, 2025, AOL finally said farewell to its dial-up internet service, closing the book on a colorful chapter of tech history. But don’t worry—your free AOL email lives on! It’s amazing they held out for so long, hanging on like those unmatched keys in your junk drawer.
Let’s harken back to January of 2000, when AOL and Time Warner joined forces in what was the largest merger at the time at $165 billion. That number almost sounds quaint these days. Maybe AOL’s leaders saw their future as a melting ice cube and decided to bow out at the height of the dot-com party. Of course, the merger didn’t turn out as planned, and by 2009, Time Warner spun AOL off. Not everyone walked away a winner, but it certainly made for a Harvard case study in failure.
Does this mean AI stocks are about to tumble? Not necessarily—just something to keep an eye on, as the AI trade is the driver for most of the current market gains.
The economy and markets keep marching on. For now, it’s smart to keep tabs on employment, inflation, and any slowdown in AI spending. If you see job numbers or inflation getting dicey, that could shake things up. And while a dip in AI spending might nudge some stocks, the good times could continue if the screens are green.
We truly appreciate your ongoing support. With the quarter wrapping up, now is a perfect time to check your accounts. As always, we’re here and happy to help—just give us a call if you need anything.
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