Ask Jevons
By Morgan Christen
CFA, CFP, CDFA
If you were online in the late 1990s, you remember “Ask Jeeves.” The friendly butler who actually promised to answer your questions rather than hand you a list of blue links. For a brief moment he was the internet’s most charming concierge, until Google showed up and made him irrelevant. The site limped along for decades under various names and reinventions, shedding the butler, dropping the “Jeeves,” and eventually becoming little more than a digital ghost town. This year, after more than 25 years, Ask.com finally closed its doors for good.
It is a fitting tombstone for the pre-AI era of search.
Because while Ask.com was quietly fading into internet history, something far more powerful was taking its place and that raises a question that an economist named William Stanley Jevons asked more than 150 years ago. A question so very counterintuitive.
Before we jump into that, let’s talk about your wallet feeling lighter lately. The data is finally catching up to what you already suspected: inflation surged to a three-year high in April and for the first time since 2023, the cost of living is officially rising faster than the average American paycheck. Wage growth clocked in at 3.6% last month — not bad on paper, but not enough when year-over-year inflation hit 3.8%, up sharply from 3.3% in March and just 2.4% back in February.
So what is driving the pain?

Energy is the biggest culprit. More than 40% of April’s month-over-month inflation increase came from energy prices, which are running about 18% higher than this time last year. Gas prices have continued to climb, though they did ease up slightly from March’s pace.
Groceries are not far behind. Fresh produce prices recorded their biggest monthly jump since 2010, with diesel transportation costs and tariffs on Mexican imports pushing prices higher. Tomatoes alone surged 15% for the second consecutive month — a stinging reminder of how trade policy shows up directly on your dinner plate.
Even the “quiet” inflation is too loud. Strip out food and energy, and core inflation still landed at 2.8% well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Higher airfares, streaming price hikes, and a one-time rental adjustment tied to last year’s government shutdown data blackout all kept the pressure on.
What comes next? Markets are watching the Federal Reserve closely. Despite incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s general preference for lower rates, the April inflation report has traders increasingly betting on a rate hike before year’s end. If that happens, borrowing costs on mortgages, car loans, and credit cards could climb even higher adding yet another layer of financial pressure on households already stretched thin.
Which brings us back to a deeper question. Why does everything keep getting more expensive, even as technology promises to make everything cheaper and more efficient? To answer that, we need to travel back to 1865 and meet Jevons.
In 1865, Jevons observed something that defied common sense. He noticed that as steam engines became more efficient burning less coal to do the same work total coal consumption did not fall. It exploded. Efficiency did not reduce demand. It unleashed it. More people, in more places, found more uses for something that had suddenly become cheaper and easier to use.
He called it a paradox.


Now fast forward to today. Artificial intelligence is arguably the most efficiency generating technology ever created. It can write, analyze, code, diagnose, design, and decide faster and cheaper than any human, at virtually unlimited scale. Every major AI lab is racing to make their models smaller, faster, and less expensive to run. The cost of an AI query has fallen by orders of magnitude in just the past three years.

So here is the Jevons question that nobody in Silicon Valley wants to answer:
If AI gets cheaper and more efficient, will we use less energy, less compute, and fewer resources or will we use dramatically more?
History, and Jevons, already knew the answer.

The Data Centers Eating the Power Grid
Let’s start with the most concrete and measurable consequence of AI’s explosive growth: electricity.
Training a single large AI model consumes roughly the same amount of energy as the lifetime carbon footprint of five average American cars. That was considered shocking when researchers first published that figure a few years ago. Today it barely registers as a footnote, because the scale of what has been built since then makes those early models look like pocket calculators.
Data centers the physical infrastructure that powers every AI query, every chatbot conversation, every image generated and email drafted by machine are now among the fastest growing consumers of electricity on the planet. In the United States alone, data center electricity demand is projected to more than double by 2030. In some regions, power grid operators are openly warning that existing infrastructure simply cannot keep up.
Here is where Jevons arrives, uninvited but entirely predictable.
The AI industry’s response to rising energy costs has been exactly what you would expect: build more efficient chips, optimize models, reduce the energy required per query. And they have succeeded. Today’s AI models are dramatically more efficient than their predecessors. A query that required significant computing power two years ago can now be handled at a fraction of the energy cost.
So energy consumption is falling, right?
Not even close. Because as each query got cheaper, the number of queries exploded. Businesses that once ran a handful of AI tasks per day now run thousands. Consumers who once typed a Google search now have extended conversations with AI assistants that each require orders of magnitude more compute than a simple search ever did. Every efficiency gain was immediately consumed and then some by a surge in new demand.
Jevons is not smiling. He is nodding.
The Jobs Paradox Nobody Is Talking About
The energy story is dramatic, but the Jevons Paradox has an equally uncomfortable application to the labor market and this one hits closer to home for most people.
The dominant narrative around AI and jobs goes something like this: AI will automate certain tasks, workers will be displaced, but new jobs will eventually emerge just as they did during the Industrial Revolution. It is a reassuring story. It is also incomplete.
Here is the Jevons version of the jobs story.
When AI makes a worker more productive, the natural assumption is that you need fewer workers to do the same amount of work. A law firm that once needed ten associates to review contracts can now do it with three, assisted by AI. A marketing team that needed six copywriters can now produce the same volume with two. Efficiency goes up. Headcount goes down.
But Jevons asks: what happens to the demand for legal work, marketing content, financial analysis, and software code when the cost of producing it falls dramatically?
It expands. Possibly without limit.
Small businesses that could never afford a lawyer can now access AI-assisted legal guidance. Startups that had no marketing budget can now produce professional content at scale. Companies that once built simple software products because complex ones were too expensive can now build sophisticated applications with lean engineering teams. The total demand for legal work, marketing, code, and analysis does not shrink when AI makes it cheaper. It grows often explosively.
The uncomfortable implication is that AI may not simply replace jobs. It may restructure entire industries around a new cost curve one where the volume of work expands so dramatically that the workforce required looks nothing like what came before. Some workers will thrive. Others will find that their specific skills have been commoditized in ways that no amount of retraining fully addresses.
The workers most at risk are not necessarily those doing the simplest tasks. They are those doing high-volume, repeatable cognitive work the kind of work that feels skilled and specialized but follows predictable enough patterns that AI can learn to replicate it. Think junior analysts, entry-level coders, paralegals, and mid-level content creators. The Jevons Paradox does not eliminate the need for their work. It eliminates the need for them to do it.


What This Means for the Economy and Markets
Pull back far enough, and the Jevons Paradox paints a picture of an economy in the middle of a profound and disorienting transition.
On one hand, AI-driven efficiency is genuinely deflationary for many goods and services. The cost of producing software, content, analysis, and customer service is falling. Businesses that successfully integrate AI will see productivity gains that eventually translate into lower prices, higher margins, or both. For consumers and investors, that is real and meaningful.
On the other hand, the resource demands of AI infrastructure energy, water for cooling data centers, rare earth minerals for chips, physical real estate for server farms are inflationary in ways that are easy to underestimate. The buildout required to sustain AI at the scale the industry envisions is staggering. And the cost of that buildout will be borne somewhere by utility ratepayers, by taxpayers who fund grid infrastructure, by communities living next to the power plants and data centers that make it all possible.
For investors, the Jevons Paradox suggests a few things worth considering:
Energy is not going away. Every prediction that AI would reduce energy consumption has been wrong. The smarter bet could be on energy infrastructure utilities, natural gas, nuclear, and the transmission lines that connect generation to consumption. The AI boom is, among other things, an energy story.
Picks and shovels still matter. The companies building the physical infrastructure of AI the chips, the cooling systems, the data center real estate, the fiber networks are playing a Jevons game. More efficiency means more demand, and more demand means more infrastructure. The gold rush metaphor is tired but may be accurate.
Cognitive labor is being repriced. If you are building a career, managing a team, or running a business that depends heavily on high-volume knowledge work, the Jevons Paradox is a signal worth taking seriously. The workers and organizations that will fare best are those who move up the value chain toward judgment, creativity, relationships, and the kind of contextual wisdom that AI can assist but not replace.
The Biggest “Ask Jevons” Question
There is a version of the AI story that is genuinely optimistic. Cheaper intelligence means more people have access to expertise that was once reserved for the wealthy. A first-generation college student in rural America can access the same quality of financial planning guidance, legal advice, and medical information as someone in a major metropolitan area. That is not nothing. That is potentially transformative.
But Jevons asks us to hold that optimism honestly. Every technology that promised to make life easier, cheaper, and more efficient has also made us consume more; more energy, more resources, more of everything. The printing press did not reduce the demand for information. The automobile did not reduce the demand for travel. The internet did not reduce the demand for human attention. It expanded all of it, in ways that created enormous wealth and enormous problems simultaneously.
AI will be no different.
The question is not whether the Jevons Paradox applies to artificial intelligence. It already does, visibly and measurably, in the data centers humming across America, in the power purchase agreements being signed between tech giants and utilities, in the labor market data that is only beginning to reflect the scale of the transition underway.
The question is whether we are paying attention.
Ask Jeeves is gone. But the questions he represents who has access to knowledge, what it costs to answer them, and what we do with the answers have never been more alive.
Welcome to the age of Ask Jevons.
Now Live:
Spinnaker Market Alerts
We look forward to sharing breaking information with you, only when it matters. If you did not receive a text from us and you are interested in receiving Market Alerts, you can sign up by completing the form here.
Have You Taken
The SpinnCycle™?
A quick reality check for your portfolio
Enter the SpinnCycle and find your SpinnScore™


